Will AI Put 60% of Finance Pros Out of Work Next Year?

The AI Disruption Nobody’s Ready For

What happens when artificial intelligence stops being a productivity boost—and starts threatening our very jobs? That unsettling scenario took center stage at the SuperReturn International conference in Berlin, with Vista Equity Partners CEO Robert F. Smith making a jaw-dropping prediction: next year, 60% of private market professionals might be looking for new work because of AI. The remaining 40%? They’ll have AI agents by their side, transforming how they operate—if they haven’t already.

Is this alarmism or a glimpse into our near future? Let’s dive in.

🤖 AI’s Shockwave: Is Your Job in the Crosshairs?

• “40% of people at this conference will have an AI agent and the remaining 60% will be looking for work next year,” predicted Robert F. Smith, CEO of Vista Equity Partners (managing over $100 billion in assets).
• According to Smith, 1 billion knowledge workers worldwide will see their roles transformed by AI—not all eliminated, but all radically changed.
• Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts up to 200,000 global banking jobs could vanish in the next 3-5 years as AI replaces tasks traditionally performed by humans.
• AI’s impact isn’t just personal—entire companies and industries face their own “Blockbuster Video moment,” says Bruce Richards, CEO of Marathon Asset Management. Those unable to adapt could face extinction.

Behind these numbers is an inflection point. Private markets are flush with tech and data-driven transformation, and AI tools—from chatbots and research assistants to copilot-style analytics—are creating new types of productivity that simply didn’t exist before. But exponential productivity gains for some could mean redundancy for others.

✅ AI as Superpower: The Proposed Solution—or Silver Bullet?

• Optionality for Knowledge Workers: Some (like Thoma Bravo’s Orlando Bravo) believe AI will amplify white-collar productivity rather than wipe out jobs. AI assistants can draft documents, process due diligence, and surface insights at lightning speed.
• Lifting the Bar for Everyone: Bravo noted AI models like ChatGPT make workers “a lot smarter”, letting them think more deeply and creatively by offloading routine tasks.
• Enterprise Investment: Giants like Vista and Thoma Bravo are riding the wave—investing in AI-enabled companies or embedding AI into their portfolio strategies. Software firms are at the frontlines, leveraging AI to disrupt legacy processes and turbocharge returns.
• Competitive Survival: Those able to harness AI may become the “hyper-productive” elite cited by Smith, shaping the future of private markets and beyond.

✅ Benefits:

• Faster workflows, deeper insights, smarter decisions — the promise is that AI amplifies rather than replaces human ingenuity.
• New value creation for companies and investors leveraging tech-driven strategies.
• Resilience for firms prepared to embrace, not fear, the AI wave.

The big bet: Productivity will soar, existing talents will be upskilled, and firms with the vision to adapt will thrive.

🚧 Speed Bumps on the AI Autobahn

• 🚧 Not Everyone’s Convinced: Bravo called some predictions—like AI wiping out half of entry-level white-collar jobs—“very futuristic.” For now, jobs may evolve before they disappear.
• ⚠️ Blockbuster Effect: Companies that can’t pivot quickly (think: Blockbuster vs Netflix) face existential risks, warns Richards. Creative destruction is real.
• ⚠️ Worker Displacement: For every “hyper-productive” worker, others risk redundancy, especially in roles defined by repeatable, automatable tasks.
• 🚧 AI Adoption Isn’t Uniform: Not all companies—or countries—can afford or trust new tech at scale. Transitioning workforces and legacy systems takes time, cost, and careful change management.

It’s a balancing act: How will leaders, both in boardrooms and governments, mitigate human displacement while driving innovation?

🚀 Where Do We Go From Here?

• ✅ AI will fuel a “creative destruction” cycle—firms that invest, reskill workers, and adapt will win; laggards risk obsolescence.
• 📉 Mass redundancies remain a risk, but large-scale knowledge work isn’t vanishing overnight. The transition will be turbulent but not instantaneous.
• 🔍 Critical Question: Are we preparing our institutions, companies, and workers to thrive in an AI-powered economy—or simply hoping for the best?

What do you think? Is Smith’s 60% warning a wake-up call or just hype? Will your job be safer, smarter—or on the chopping block? Share your thoughts below!

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Sources: Kat Hidalgo. Vista CEO Says AI to Force 60% of SuperReturn Crowd to Seek Work, June 5, 2025. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-05/vista-ceo-says-ai-to-force-60-of-superreturn-crowd-to-seek-work