Tesla Stock Set to Skyrocket 1,300%: Musk’s Masterplan or Overhyped Fantasy?

Tesla’s Rollercoaster Ride: From Market Share Losses to Robotaxi Dreams
Tesla’s stock has had a rough 2025, down 15% year-to-date amid factory slowdowns, political drama, and BYD overtaking it as the world’s top EV seller. But Elon Musk just dropped a bombshell: He believes Tesla could eventually be worth more than Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet combined—a 1,300% surge from today’s $1 trillion valuation. Is this visionary confidence or Silicon Valley hubris? Let’s unpack the details.

🚨 The Bear Case: Why Tesla’s Stock Is Struggling

• Market Share Meltdown: Lost 7% global EV share in Q1 2025 as BYD capitalized on Tesla’s Model Y production delays.
• Political Headwinds: Trump’s 25% tariff on imported auto parts squeezed margins, while Musk’s DOGE distractions irked investors.
• Valuation Concerns: Trading at 150x earnings—a steep premium given Wall Street’s modest 13% annual growth forecast through 2026.

✅ The Bull Case: Robotaxis, AI, and Musk’s “Juggernaut” Vision

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives sees 47% upside ($500/share), but Musk’s ambitions go far beyond:

• ✅ June Robotaxi Launch: Autonomous ride-hailing debuts in Austin next month, expanding to other U.S. cities by late 2025.
• ✅ Data Dominance: Tesla’s 4 million+ vehicles on roads provide unmatched training data for its vision-only FSD software.
• ✅ Uber Meets Airbnb Model: Owners can rent out their Teslas autonomously—no lidar/radar costs give it a scaling edge over Waymo.

Musk predicts robotaxis will “move the financial needle” by late 2026 and claims Tesla could capture 99% of the autonomous mobility market.

⚠️ The Hurdles: Why Skeptics Aren’t Convinced

• 🚧 Waymo’s Head Start: Alphabet’s subsidiary already operates in 10+ cities with 10x fewer accidents than human drivers.
• 🚧 Execution Risk: Tesla has missed FSD deadlines repeatedly—can it deliver Level 5 autonomy this time?
• 🚧 Regulatory Wildcards: Safety concerns and insurance liability debates could delay nationwide rollout.

🚀 Final Verdict: Bet on Musk’s Moonshot—or Stay Clear?

Tesla’s trillion-dollar question hinges on two factors:

• 📈 Autonomy or Bust: As Musk warns, “If you don’t believe Tesla will solve self-driving, don’t invest.”
• 🤖 Scaling the ‘Tesla Network’: Success requires flawless robotaxi execution AND mass owner participation.

For believers, this is a generational AI/robotics play. For skeptics, it’s a valuation bubble waiting to pop. Which side are you on?

Let us know on X (Former Twitter)

Source: Trevor Jennewine. Tesla Investors Just Got Great News From CEO Elon Musk: The Stock Could Soar 1,300%, May 25, 2025. https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/05/25/tesla-investors-got-great-news-elon-musk-soar-1300/